R² = fraction of variance explained (1.0 = perfect, 0 = no signal). RMSE = root mean squared error (average prediction miss in target units). F-statistic tests whether the model explains more than random chance.
Intercept Interpretation
When all features are at their mean values, the predicted net patient revenue is 254,770,179.37
Coefficients (Standardized)
Target: Net Patient Revenue. Standardized coefficients (-1.0 to +1.0): a one-SD increase in the feature produces this fraction of the strongest effect. *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05.
| Variable | Strength | t | p-value | Sig | 95% CI | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Patient Days | +1.000 | 11.4 | 0.0000 | *** | [324618339.745, 459377824.321] | |
| Revenue Per Bed | +0.874 | 29.3 | 0.0000 | *** | [319831117.133, 365627349.894] | |
| Expense Per Bed | -0.613 | 21.0 | 0.0000 | *** | [-262894582.962, -218065024.587] | |
| Medicare Days | +0.505 | 6.2 | 0.0000 | *** | [135104793.894, 260819624.751] | |
| Beds | +0.440 | 4.6 | 0.0000 | *** | [99002783.909, 245581257.134] | |
| Bed Days Available | -0.430 | 6.6 | 0.0000 | *** | [-218578065.302, -118736128.721] | |
| Medicare Intensity | -0.341 | 4.2 | 0.0000 | *** | [-195191397.950, -71909323.796] | |
| Occupancy Rate | -0.172 | 13.8 | 0.0000 | *** | [-77209433.056, -58001483.780] | |
| Revenue Per Day | -0.072 | 8.5 | 0.0000 | *** | [-34733794.583, -21752026.401] | |
| Operating Margin | -0.060 | 6.4 | 0.0000 | *** | [-30912694.504, -16366274.440] | |
| Medicaid Days | -0.058 | 4.5 | 0.0000 | *** | [-32599739.876, -12718214.715] | |
| Size Quartile | +0.040 | 2.6 | 0.0084 | ** | [4018470.765, 27339581.020] | |
| Medicaid Day Pct | +0.035 | 3.8 | 0.0002 | *** | [6535101.795, 20830932.977] | |
| Net To Gross Ratio | +0.028 | 2.9 | 0.0039 | ** | [3538700.062, 18496681.237] | |
| Commercial Pct | -0.019 | 2.6 | 0.0096 | ** | [-13310185.633, -1844413.092] | |
| Payer Diversity | -0.017 | 1.5 | 0.1279 | ns | [-15556357.553, 1954287.625] | |
| Medicare Day Pct | -0.003 | 0.4 | 0.6920 | ns | [-6609697.347, 4387163.271] |
Univariate Correlations with Target
Pearson r for each feature vs Net Patient Revenue. Shows raw linear relationship before controlling for other variables.
| Feature | r | Strength | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Patient Days | 0.857 | Strong | |
| Bed Days Available | 0.827 | Strong | |
| Beds | 0.816 | Strong | |
| Medicare Days | 0.795 | Strong | |
| Medicare Intensity | 0.739 | Strong | |
| Medicaid Days | 0.523 | Moderate | |
| Size Quartile | 0.472 | Moderate | |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.376 | Weak | |
| Revenue Per Bed | 0.281 | Weak | |
| Medicare Day Pct | -0.222 | Weak | |
| Expense Per Bed | 0.217 | Weak | |
| Commercial Pct | 0.215 | Weak | |
| Net To Gross Ratio | -0.164 | Weak | |
| Operating Margin | 0.072 | Weak | |
| Payer Diversity | -0.038 | Weak | |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.012 | Weak | |
| Revenue Per Day | -0.003 | Weak |
Hospital Outliers (Residual Analysis)
Hospitals with the largest standardized residuals. >2σ = model underpredicts/overpredicts — investigate for deal opportunities or data quality issues.
| Hospital | State | Actual | Predicted | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST. LUKES HOSPITAL | PA | $8.94B | $3.39B | +25.37σ |
| STANFORD HEALTH CARE | CA | $6.76B | $2.77B | +18.25σ |
| CLEVELAND CLINIC HOSPITAL | OH | $6.38B | $3.08B | +15.08σ |
| UCSF MEDICAL CENTER | CA | $5.44B | $2.51B | +13.39σ |
| NYU LANGONE HOSPITALS | NY | $7.24B | $4.42B | +12.89σ |
| PARKLAND HLTH CTR - BONNE TERRE | MO | $124.2M | $2.80B | -12.23σ |
| MEMORIAL HOSPITAL FOR CANCER AND AL | NY | $4.34B | $1.80B | +11.62σ |
| UT MD ANDERSON CANCER CENTER | TX | $4.90B | $2.39B | +11.45σ |
| VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTE | TN | $5.44B | $3.08B | +10.81σ |
| UNIV OF MI HOSPITALS & HLTH CTRS | MI | $4.62B | $2.69B | +8.81σ |
| METHODIST HOSPITAL | TX | $2.42B | $4.07B | -7.58σ |
| UC DAVIS MEDICAL CENTER | CA | $3.28B | $1.81B | +6.73σ |
| WENATCHEE VALLEY HOSPITAL | WA | $277.5M | $1.74B | -6.68σ |
| MIDWESTERN REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER | IL | $1.38B | $2.79B | -6.43σ |
| JACKSON MEMORIAL | FL | $1.47B | $2.87B | -6.39σ |
Variance Inflation Factors
VIF > 10 = severe multicollinearity (coefficient estimates unreliable). VIF > 5 = moderate. Consider removing high-VIF features.
| Feature | VIF | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 999.0 | High |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 999.0 | High |
| Commercial Pct | 999.0 | High |
| Beds | 143.4 | High |
| Total Patient Days | 121.2 | High |
| Medicare Days | 105.5 | High |
| Medicare Intensity | 101.4 | High |
| Bed Days Available | 66.5 | High |
| Revenue Per Bed | 14.0 | High |
| Expense Per Bed | 13.4 | High |
| Size Quartile | 3.6 | OK |
| Medicaid Days | 2.6 | OK |
Model Fit by State
How well the national model predicts within each state. Low R² states have unique market dynamics not captured by national features — consider state-specific models.
| State | n | R² | Mean Residual |
|---|---|---|---|
| CT | 32 | 97.8% | $27.0M |
| RI | 12 | 96.4% | $16.4M |
| NM | 36 | 95.9% | $19.3M |
| VT | 14 | 95.8% | $23.8M |
| KY | 110 | 94.9% | $16.1M |
| KS | 95 | 93.3% | $21.5M |
| WV | 57 | 93.2% | $10.0M |
| MN | 123 | 92.8% | $-14.5M |
| HI | 18 | 92.3% | $-14.7M |
| NC | 118 | 92.1% | $-16.6M |
| VA | 89 | 92.0% | $16.4M |
| ND | 41 | 91.7% | $28.5M |
| ME | 36 | 90.6% | $25.6M |
| SD | 54 | 89.3% | $4.5M |
| LA | 143 | 89.1% | $24.0M |
Top Pairwise Correlations
| Variable 1 | Variable 2 | r |
|---|---|---|
| Beds | Bed Days Available | 0.984 |
| Total Patient Days | Bed Days Available | 0.976 |
| Beds | Total Patient Days | 0.962 |
| Medicare Days | Medicare Intensity | 0.955 |
| Revenue Per Bed | Expense Per Bed | 0.948 |
| Total Patient Days | Medicare Days | 0.899 |
| Beds | Medicare Intensity | 0.879 |
| Medicare Days | Bed Days Available | 0.871 |
| Bed Days Available | Medicare Intensity | 0.860 |
| Beds | Medicare Days | 0.859 |
| Total Patient Days | Net Patient Revenue | 0.857 |
| Total Patient Days | Medicare Intensity | 0.844 |
| Bed Days Available | Net Patient Revenue | 0.827 |
| Beds | Net Patient Revenue | 0.816 |
| Medicare Day Pct | Commercial Pct | -0.799 |