Cross-matches platform deal predictions against the 655-deal corpus of realized outcomes. When a corpus DB with public_deals is populated, shows prediction-vs-realized MOIC error per deal; otherwise falls back to a ground-truth view of realized MOIC distribution by vintage year and subsector.
Per-deal MOIC error is colored green |Δ| ≤ 0.25x, amber ≤ 0.75x, red otherwise. Vintage/subsector medians are colored green ≥ 2.50x, amber ≥ 1.50x, red below. Subsector cohorts with fewer than three realized deals are suppressed.
Use the match view to calibrate how tightly platform forecasts track realized outcomes by cohort, and the ground-truth view to size the unconditional prior for a given vintage-and-subsector bucket before layering any target-specific adjustment.
backtester.py module. For the value-bridge / ML-predictor backtest (calibration curves + conformal intervals on an individual deal model) see /backtester. They answer different questions.| Corpus Deal | Year | Realized MOIC | Predicted MOIC | Error | Match % |
|---|
| Vintage | N | Median | Mean | Stdev | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 1 | 0.50x | 0.50x | 0.00x | 0.50x | 0.50x |
| 2004 | 4 | 2.80x | 3.38x | 1.67x | 2.10x | 5.80x |
| 2005 | 3 | 2.80x | 3.10x | 0.98x | 2.30x | 4.20x |
| 2006 | 2 | 2.25x | 2.25x | 0.21x | 2.10x | 2.40x |
| 2007 | 2 | 4.15x | 4.15x | 0.49x | 3.80x | 4.50x |
| 2009 | 1 | 2.60x | 2.60x | 0.00x | 2.60x | 2.60x |
| 2010 | 7 | 0.80x | 1.50x | 1.44x | ⚠ 0.00x | 3.20x |
| 2011 | 12 | 3.90x | 5.22x | 2.99x | 2.50x | ⚠ 12.50x |
| 2012 | 3 | 4.20x | 4.23x | 0.95x | 3.30x | 5.20x |
| 2013 | 4 | 2.55x | 2.58x | 1.58x | 0.70x | 4.50x |
| 2014 | 18 | 2.80x | 3.25x | 1.89x | 0.70x | ⚠ 8.50x |
| 2015 | 29 | 2.80x | 2.82x | 0.92x | 0.40x | 4.80x |
| 2016 | 33 | 2.40x | 2.21x | 1.33x | ⚠ 0.00x | 5.00x |
| 2017 | 25 | 3.10x | 3.32x | 1.07x | 1.20x | 5.50x |
| 2018 | 50 | 2.80x | 2.59x | 1.29x | ⚠ 0.05x | 4.50x |
| 2019 | 56 | 3.00x | 2.89x | 1.05x | 0.40x | 5.10x |
| 2020 | 37 | 2.80x | 2.56x | 1.08x | ⚠ 0.20x | 5.50x |
| 2021 | 44 | 2.45x | 2.61x | 2.17x | ⚠ 0.00x | ⚠ 9.00x |
| 2022 | 5 | 1.20x | 1.30x | 1.12x | ⚠ 0.10x | 2.80x |
| 2023 | 6 | 1.05x | 1.43x | 1.66x | ⚠ 0.10x | 4.50x |
| 2024 | 2 | 1.75x | 1.75x | 0.49x | 1.40x | 2.10x |
| Subsector | N | Median MOIC | Mean | Stdev |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| managed_care_services | 4 | 4.25x | 4.08x | 0.94x |
| asc | 8 | 3.65x | 3.38x | 0.63x |
| urgent_care | 3 | 3.50x | 3.50x | 0.50x |
| Dermatology | 3 | 3.40x | 3.27x | 0.32x |
| oncology | 5 | 3.30x | 3.30x | 0.33x |
| hospice | 4 | 3.30x | 3.90x | 1.27x |
| Healthcare IT / RCM | 3 | 3.30x | 3.43x | 1.31x |
| primary_care | 3 | 3.20x | 2.27x | 1.88x |
| cardiology | 3 | 3.20x | 3.03x | 2.55x |
| Orthopedics | 3 | 3.20x | 3.17x | 0.35x |
| dme_home_health | 6 | 3.15x | 3.18x | 1.04x |
| health_it | 32 | 3.10x | 3.06x | 1.33x |
| Behavioral Health | 3 | 3.10x | 2.43x | 1.80x |
| Dental | 3 | 3.10x | 4.70x | 3.30x |
| dialysis | 5 | 3.00x | 2.82x | 0.73x |
| behavioral_health | 11 | 3.00x | 2.95x | 2.00x |
| physician_group | 20 | 2.90x | 2.69x | 1.24x |
| managed_care | 19 | 2.80x | 2.65x | 1.54x |
| home_health | 11 | 2.50x | 2.76x | 0.67x |
| digital_health | 3 | 2.50x | 3.07x | 0.98x |
| unknown | 101 | 2.40x | 2.56x | 1.96x |
| ltach_post_acute | 5 | 2.40x | 2.38x | 0.19x |
| dental | 5 | 2.20x | 2.43x | 1.91x |
| hospital | 12 | 2.10x | 1.71x | 1.13x |
| physical_therapy | 4 | 2.05x | 1.82x | 1.08x |
| radiology | 3 | 0.70x | 1.37x | 1.24x |