ML Analysis — KPC PROMISE HOSPITAL OF DALLAS
CCN 452067 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -18.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.1%, 19.5%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 108981.061 | -0.2052 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 128955.030 | +0.1883 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 21927.406 | -0.0282 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.201 | -0.0184 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.6%
Distress Risk
$8.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
100.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P45. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.201 | +0.301 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 108981.061 | +0.087 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.060 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.479 | +0.026 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 66.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.374 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.5M
Current margin: -18.3%
Projected margin: 100.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 225
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.462 | 0.783 | 32.1% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.201 | 0.752 | 55.0% | $3.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.374 | 0.484 | 11.0% | $92K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P59 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |