ML Analysis — ESSENTIA HEALTH MOOSE LAKE
CCN 241350 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.5%, 19.1%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.295 | -0.0269 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.585 | +0.0243 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 467691.721 | -0.0134 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Reimbursement Quality.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.4%
Distress Risk
$2.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
2.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P45. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.307 | +0.203 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.585 | +0.096 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.069 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.427 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1523629.760 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.7M
Current margin: -5.0%
Projected margin: 2.1%
Grade: C
Comps: 92
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.504 | 0.611 | 10.6% | $1.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.307 | 0.451 | 14.4% | $948K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.585 | 0.624 | 3.9% | $173K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P47 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |