ML Analysis — AURORA VISTA DEL MAR BHS
CCN 054077 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health1/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.7%, 13.9%]. P28 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 158382.230 | -0.1983 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 171962.081 | +0.1830 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.386 | -0.0532 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 62280.551 | -0.0269 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.581 | +0.0238 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
59.2%
Distress Risk
$3.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
14.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P47. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.233 | +0.144 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.393 | +0.122 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.581 | +0.094 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 158382.230 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.101 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 87.000 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.2M
Current margin: -8.6%
Projected margin: 14.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 164
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.393 | 0.747 | 35.4% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.665 | 0.724 | 5.8% | $875K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P33 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |