ML Analysis — YUMA REHABILITATION HOSPITAL AN AFF
CCN 033034 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
1.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 22.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-27.1%, 29.5%]. P65 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 234203.628 | -0.1878 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 180930.020 | +0.1819 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.714 | +0.0387 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.008 | +0.0279 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 154294.528 | -0.0238 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
51.3%
Distress Risk
$6.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
80.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P96. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
AZ distress rate: 35.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.714 | +0.154 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.659 | -0.124 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.004 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 234203.627 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.722 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 51.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.9M
Current margin: 22.8%
Projected margin: 80.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 44
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.274 | 0.698 | 42.4% | $6.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.659 | 0.741 | 8.2% | $544K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |