TRISTAR CENTENNIAL MEDICAL CENTER
1. Target Overview & Investment Thesis
TRISTAR CENTENNIAL MEDICAL CENTER is a 598-bed suburban community hospital in DAVIDSON, TN with $991.8M in net patient revenue and a 23.0% operating margin. The hospital serves a payer mix of 17.8% Medicare, 6.9% Medicaid, and 75.3% commercial.
Thesis: Platform Growth. Our ML models identify $73.0M in annual EBITDA improvement potential from RCM optimization across 5 levers, lifting margin from 23.0% to 30.3% (+736bps).
| Net Revenue HCRIS | $991.8M |
| Current EBITDA COMPUTED | $228.0M |
| Operating Margin COMPUTED | 23.0% |
| Occupancy HCRIS | 70.7% |
| Revenue / Bed COMPUTED | $1.7M |
| Net-to-Gross HCRIS | 14.4% |
| Distress Probability ML | 42.9% |
2. Market Context & Competitive Position
TN has 141 Medicare-certified hospitals with a median operating margin of -0.6%. The target's margin of 23.0% places it above the state median. Among 15 size-comparable peers (299-1196 beds), the median margin is -6.4%. The target performs in line with or above peers.
3. RCM Performance Analysis — Comparable Hospitals
Comps selected by bed count (299-1196), prioritizing same-state peers. 15 hospitals in the comp set.
| Hospital | State | Beds | Revenue | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRISTAR CENTENNIAL MEDICAL CEN (Target) | TN | 598 | $991.8M | 23.0% |
| VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL | TN | 1084 | $5.44B | -15.9% |
| ERLANGER MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 750 | $1.09B | -6.4% |
| UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE MEDICA | TN | 698 | $1.08B | -17.6% |
| SAINT THOMAS WEST HOSPITAL | TN | 643 | $1.06B | 0.2% |
| JACKSON-MADISON COUNTY GENERAL | TN | 580 | $797.1M | 1.4% |
| BAPTIST MEM HOSPITAL MEMPHIS | TN | 800 | $766.1M | -12.7% |
| MEMORIAL HEALTH CARE SYSTEM IN | TN | 431 | $583.9M | -9.0% |
| JOHNSON CITY MEDICAL CENTER | TN | 537 | $546.1M | -8.6% |
4. Predicted Improvement Opportunities
Improvement targets set at P75 of comparable peers with 60% gap closure assumption. Coefficients calibrated to published research bands. Total EBITDA uplift: $73.0M (736bps margin improvement).
| Lever | Current | Target | EBITDA Impact | Margin | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% | 97.0% | $20.8M | +210bp | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% | 2.5% | $19.8M | +200bp | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% | 6.5% | $19.6M | +198bp | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 5200.0% | 3800.0% | $12.1M | +122bp | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% | 96.0% | $635K | +6bp | 6mo |
5. EBITDA Bridge
| Current EBITDA | $228.0M |
| + RCM Uplift | +$73.0M |
| Pro Forma EBITDA | $301.0M |
| Current Margin | 23.0% |
| Pro Forma Margin | 30.3% |
| WC Released (1x) | $38.0M |
6. Returns Analysis — Scenario Matrix
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Base case uses 100% of predicted RCM uplift. Bull case: 130% uplift at lower entry. Bear case: 50% uplift at higher entry.
| Scenario | Entry | Exit | Equity In | Equity Out | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 10.0x | 10.0x | $350.7M | $2.23B | 6.37x | 44.8% |
| Base (11x exit) | 10.0x | 11.0x | $350.7M | $2.57B | 7.33x | 48.9% |
| Bull Case | 9.0x | 11.0x | $315.7M | $2.93B | 9.27x | 56.1% |
| Bull (12x exit) | 9.0x | 12.0x | $315.7M | $3.29B | 10.41x | 59.8% |
| Bear Case | 11.0x | 10.0x | $385.8M | $1.75B | 4.55x | 35.4% |
| Bear (11x exit) | 11.0x | 11.0x | $385.8M | $2.06B | 5.33x | 39.7% |
7. Key Risks & Mitigants
| Severity | Risk Factor | Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Low | Low net-to-gross ratio | Large contractual allowances suggest pricing discipline issues. Mitigant: payer renegotiation is an additional upside lever |
8. Data Sources & Methodology Appendix
Data Sources
- CMS HCRIS Cost Reports (Medicare-certified hospitals)
- CMS Medicare Utilization (DRG-level volumes)
- CMS Chronic Conditions (county-level disease prevalence)
- HCRIS multi-year trend data (financial time series)
Comparable Selection
- 15 hospitals with 299-1196 beds
- Same-state prioritization (n=16)
- Comp margins: P25=-11.1% / P50=-6.4% / P75=1.4%
Bridge Methodology
- Targets: P75 of comparable peers (60% gap closure)
- Denial: avoidable share = 35% of delta × NPR
- AR: bad debt coefficient = $0.65 per day per $1K NPR
- NCR: 60% coefficient on collection rate improvement
- CDI: 0.75% of Medicare revenue per 0.01 CMI point
Returns Assumptions
- Leverage: 5.5x entry (84.6% debt / 15.4% equity)
- Organic growth: 3% annual EBITDA growth
- Debt paydown: 10% of principal per year
- Hold period: 5 years
Generated by SeekingChartis on April 26, 2026. All predictions use public data only. Confidence intervals calibrated via split conformal prediction (90% coverage target). This memo is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.