Physician Attrition — Target Physician Group
Predictive RCM analytic
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Physician Attrition
Target Physician Group
18-month flight-risk · 9-feature model · 2 providers scored
Roster is stable — 0 CRITICAL, 0 HIGH. The physician-attrition lever in the EBITDA bridge can be modeled at the baseline specialty churn rate (~5%).
What this shows: Flight-risk probabilities were computed for all 2 providers using a 9-feature model (comp gap vs FMV, tenure, age inflection, productivity trend, local competitor density, Stark overlap, employment status, revenue concentration, specialty mobility). Expected collections at risk sums to $998,991 (27.0% of roster revenue). The top-20% of providers concentrates 19.8% of that risk — retention actions should focus there. Your roster's implied attrition rate (27.0%) is materially above the public-peer median (6.2%, n=11 disclosures).
Roster size
2
0 critical · 0 high · 0 medium · 2 low
Total collections
$3.7M
roster annual collections · hover for source
Expected $ at risk
$1.0M
27.0% of roster · 18-mo horizon
EBITDA bridge hit
$847K
LOW confidence · 60% realization
EBITDA Bridge · Physician-Attrition Lever
Data-driven input for Deal MC
EBITDA at risk
$846,592
Collections lost (projected)
$5,643,948
Attrition as % collections
35.8%
Confidence
LOW
How to use: Feed the attrition-pct-of-collections value into the Deal MC
physician_attrition_pct driver instead of the industry-default 5%. The bridge EBITDA-hit assumes a 15% EBITDA margin on physician-group collections and a 60% realization rate over the 18-month horizon given a standard earn-out structure.Related: Physician Economic Units → tells you who SHOULD leave (per-provider P&L + loss-maker tail). Together with this flight-risk view, the complete physician-portfolio optimization picture.
Quick filter:All bandsCriticalHighMediumLowUse the search box below for fine filtering, or press / to focus it.
No providers are in the LOW band. No retention bonds required for the filtered view.
Full roster · sortable · filterable · CSV export
| Provider | Specialty | Employment | Flight prob | Band | Collections | $ at risk | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P006 | GASTROENTEROLOGY | PARTNER | 27.1% | LOW | $2,800,000 | $758,861 | Competitor density |
| P008 | INTERNAL MEDICINE | W2 | 26.7% | LOW | $900,000 | $240,129 | Competitor density |
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