Physician Attrition — Target Physician Group
Predictive RCM analytic
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Physician Attrition
Target Physician Group
18-month flight-risk · 9-feature model · 8 providers scored
2 CRITICAL · 3 HIGH flight-risk providers. Earn-out must include retention milestones for each HIGH/CRITICAL named provider. Model a $846,592 EBITDA hit in the Deal MC physician-attrition driver.
What this shows: Flight-risk probabilities were computed for all 8 providers using a 9-feature model (comp gap vs FMV, tenure, age inflection, productivity trend, local competitor density, Stark overlap, employment status, revenue concentration, specialty mobility). Expected collections at risk sums to $9,406,580 (59.7% of roster revenue). The top-20% of providers concentrates 19.8% of that risk — retention actions should focus there. Your roster's implied attrition rate (59.7%) is materially above the public-peer median (6.2%, n=11 disclosures).
Roster size
8
2 critical · 3 high · 1 medium · 2 low
Total collections
$15.8M
roster annual collections · hover for source
Expected $ at risk
$9.4M
59.7% of roster · 18-mo horizon
EBITDA bridge hit
$847K
LOW confidence · 60% realization
EBITDA Bridge · Physician-Attrition Lever
Data-driven input for Deal MC
EBITDA at risk
$846,592
Collections lost (projected)
$5,643,948
Attrition as % collections
35.8%
Confidence
LOW
How to use: Feed the attrition-pct-of-collections value into the Deal MC
physician_attrition_pct driver instead of the industry-default 5%. The bridge EBITDA-hit assumes a 15% EBITDA margin on physician-group collections and a 60% realization rate over the 18-month horizon given a standard earn-out structure.Related: Physician Economic Units → tells you who SHOULD leave (per-provider P&L + loss-maker tail). Together with this flight-risk view, the complete physician-portfolio optimization picture.
Quick filter:All bandsCriticalHighMediumLowUse the search box below for fine filtering, or press / to focus it.
High + critical providers · 5 shown · retention action required
18-mo flight probability
98%
~$1,864,189 at risk
Log-odds contribution (top drivers · hover for detail)
Short tenure+1.50
Employment status+1.40
Productivity decline+1.17
Competitor density+1.00
Partner recommendation: Retention bond required pre-close. Do not close the deal without a 2-3 year retention agreement carrying a meaningful lockup (typically 25–50% of comp held escrow).
Retention bond sizing: $200,000 (3y lockup) — bonds this provider to the target through year-3.
Full feature vector · click to expand
FeatureValueβ·xSource
Comp vs FMV gap0.053+0.09FMV benchmark ANESTHESIOLOGY p50 $475,000
Short tenure1.000+1.50caller.years_at_facility
Age peak0.640+0.77caller.age_years
Productivity decline0.533+1.17caller.yoy_collections_slope
Competitor density1.000+1.0080 competitors / 8 roster slots
Stark overlap0.000+0.00no Stark overlap
Employment status1.000+1.40provider.employment_status=LOCUM
Revenue concentration0.603+0.241,900,000 / 15,750,000 roster total
Specialty mobility0.750+0.98specialty=ANESTHESIOLOGY mobility prior
Features in [0, 1] · β·x is the feature's contribution to log-odds of flight (red raises probability, green lowers). Sum + intercept (−3.2) = log-odds; sigmoid → probability.
18-mo flight probability
76%
~$1,812,430 at risk
Log-odds contribution (top drivers · hover for detail)
Short tenure+1.33
Competitor density+1.00
Specialty mobility+0.98
Employment status+0.42
Partner recommendation: Earn-out structure must include retention milestone. Tie a portion of seller consideration to the provider staying through year-2.
Retention bond sizing: $112,000 (2y lockup) — bonds this provider to the target through year-2.
Full feature vector · click to expand
FeatureValueβ·xSource
Comp vs FMV gap0.000+0.00no FMV benchmark for specialty
Short tenure0.889+1.33caller.years_at_facility
Age peak0.000+0.00caller.age_years
Productivity decline0.133+0.29caller.yoy_collections_slope
Competitor density1.000+1.0080 competitors / 8 roster slots
Stark overlap0.000+0.00no Stark overlap
Employment status0.300+0.42provider.employment_status=W2
Revenue concentration0.762+0.302,400,000 / 15,750,000 roster total
Specialty mobility0.750+0.98specialty=ORTHOPEDIC_SURGERY mobility prior
Features in [0, 1] · β·x is the feature's contribution to log-odds of flight (red raises probability, green lowers). Sum + intercept (−3.2) = log-odds; sigmoid → probability.
18-mo flight probability
73%
~$1,535,223 at risk
Log-odds contribution (top drivers · hover for detail)
Short tenure+1.00
Competitor density+1.00
Specialty mobility+0.78
Productivity decline+0.73
Partner recommendation: Earn-out structure must include retention milestone. Tie a portion of seller consideration to the provider staying through year-2.
Retention bond sizing: $125,000 (2y lockup) — bonds this provider to the target through year-2.
Full feature vector · click to expand
FeatureValueβ·xSource
Comp vs FMV gap0.000+0.00no FMV benchmark for specialty
Short tenure0.667+1.00caller.years_at_facility
Age peak0.000+0.00caller.age_years
Productivity decline0.333+0.73caller.yoy_collections_slope
Competitor density1.000+1.0080 competitors / 8 roster slots
Stark overlap0.000+0.00no Stark overlap
Employment status0.300+0.42provider.employment_status=W2
Revenue concentration0.667+0.272,100,000 / 15,750,000 roster total
Specialty mobility0.600+0.78specialty=UROLOGY mobility prior
Features in [0, 1] · β·x is the feature's contribution to log-odds of flight (red raises probability, green lowers). Sum + intercept (−3.2) = log-odds; sigmoid → probability.
18-mo flight probability
92%
~$1,474,885 at risk
Log-odds contribution (top drivers · hover for detail)
Short tenure+1.50
Competitor density+1.00
Employment status+0.98
Age peak+0.96
Partner recommendation: Retention bond required pre-close. Do not close the deal without a 2-3 year retention agreement carrying a meaningful lockup (typically 25–50% of comp held escrow).
Retention bond sizing: $168,000 (3y lockup) — bonds this provider to the target through year-3.
Full feature vector · click to expand
FeatureValueβ·xSource
Comp vs FMV gap0.063+0.11FMV benchmark EMERGENCY_MEDICINE p50 $395,000
Short tenure1.000+1.50caller.years_at_facility
Age peak0.800+0.96caller.age_years
Productivity decline0.000+0.00caller.yoy_collections_slope
Competitor density1.000+1.0080 competitors / 8 roster slots
Stark overlap0.000+0.00no Stark overlap
Employment status0.700+0.98provider.employment_status=1099
Revenue concentration0.508+0.201,600,000 / 15,750,000 roster total
Specialty mobility0.700+0.91specialty=EMERGENCY_MEDICINE mobility prior
Features in [0, 1] · β·x is the feature's contribution to log-odds of flight (red raises probability, green lowers). Sum + intercept (−3.2) = log-odds; sigmoid → probability.
18-mo flight probability
66%
~$559,683 at risk
Log-odds contribution (top drivers · hover for detail)
Productivity decline+1.47
Competitor density+1.00
Employment status+0.42
Specialty mobility+0.39
Partner recommendation: Earn-out structure must include retention milestone. Tie a portion of seller consideration to the provider staying through year-2.
Retention bond sizing: $70,000 (2y lockup) — bonds this provider to the target through year-2.
Full feature vector · click to expand
FeatureValueβ·xSource
Comp vs FMV gap0.077+0.14FMV benchmark FAMILY_MEDICINE p50 $260,000
Short tenure0.222+0.33caller.years_at_facility
Age peak0.000+0.00caller.age_years
Productivity decline0.667+1.47caller.yoy_collections_slope
Competitor density1.000+1.0080 competitors / 8 roster slots
Stark overlap0.000+0.00no Stark overlap
Employment status0.300+0.42provider.employment_status=W2
Revenue concentration0.270+0.11850,000 / 15,750,000 roster total
Specialty mobility0.300+0.39specialty=FAMILY_MEDICINE mobility prior
Features in [0, 1] · β·x is the feature's contribution to log-odds of flight (red raises probability, green lowers). Sum + intercept (−3.2) = log-odds; sigmoid → probability.
Full roster · sortable · filterable · CSV export
| Provider | Specialty | Employment | Flight prob | Band | Collections | $ at risk | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P005 | ANESTHESIOLOGY | LOCUM | 98.1% | CRITICAL | $1,900,000 | $1,864,189 | Short tenure |
| P001 | ORTHOPEDIC SURGERY | W2 | 75.5% | HIGH | $2,400,000 | $1,812,430 | Short tenure |
| P007 | UROLOGY | W2 | 73.1% | HIGH | $2,100,000 | $1,535,223 | Short tenure |
| P004 | EMERGENCY MEDICINE | 1099 | 92.2% | CRITICAL | $1,600,000 | $1,474,885 | Short tenure |
| P002 | CARDIOLOGY | PARTNER | 36.3% | MEDIUM | $3,200,000 | $1,161,179 | Competitor density |
| P006 | GASTROENTEROLOGY | PARTNER | 27.1% | LOW | $2,800,000 | $758,861 | Competitor density |
| P003 | FAMILY MEDICINE | W2 | 65.8% | HIGH | $850,000 | $559,683 | Productivity decline |
| P008 | INTERNAL MEDICINE | W2 | 26.7% | LOW | $900,000 | $240,129 | Competitor density |
Press ? for shortcuts · b to bookmark · ⌘K to jump