Physician Attrition — Target Physician Group
Predictive RCM analytic
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Physician Attrition
Target Physician Group
18-month flight-risk · 9-feature model · 2 providers scored
2 CRITICAL · 0 HIGH flight-risk providers. Earn-out must include retention milestones for each HIGH/CRITICAL named provider. Model a $846,592 EBITDA hit in the Deal MC physician-attrition driver.
What this shows: Flight-risk probabilities were computed for all 2 providers using a 9-feature model (comp gap vs FMV, tenure, age inflection, productivity trend, local competitor density, Stark overlap, employment status, revenue concentration, specialty mobility). Expected collections at risk sums to $3,339,074 (95.4% of roster revenue). The top-20% of providers concentrates 19.8% of that risk — retention actions should focus there. Your roster's implied attrition rate (95.4%) is materially above the public-peer median (6.2%, n=11 disclosures).
Roster size
2
2 critical · 0 high · 0 medium · 0 low
Total collections
$3.5M
roster annual collections · hover for source
Expected $ at risk
$3.3M
95.4% of roster · 18-mo horizon
EBITDA bridge hit
$847K
LOW confidence · 60% realization
EBITDA Bridge · Physician-Attrition Lever
Data-driven input for Deal MC
EBITDA at risk
$846,592
Collections lost (projected)
$5,643,948
Attrition as % collections
35.8%
Confidence
LOW
How to use: Feed the attrition-pct-of-collections value into the Deal MC
physician_attrition_pct driver instead of the industry-default 5%. The bridge EBITDA-hit assumes a 15% EBITDA margin on physician-group collections and a 60% realization rate over the 18-month horizon given a standard earn-out structure.Related: Physician Economic Units → tells you who SHOULD leave (per-provider P&L + loss-maker tail). Together with this flight-risk view, the complete physician-portfolio optimization picture.
Quick filter:All bandsCriticalHighMediumLowUse the search box below for fine filtering, or press / to focus it.
High + critical providers · 2 shown · retention action required
18-mo flight probability
98%
~$1,864,189 at risk
Log-odds contribution (top drivers · hover for detail)
Short tenure+1.50
Employment status+1.40
Productivity decline+1.17
Competitor density+1.00
Partner recommendation: Retention bond required pre-close. Do not close the deal without a 2-3 year retention agreement carrying a meaningful lockup (typically 25–50% of comp held escrow).
Retention bond sizing: $200,000 (3y lockup) — bonds this provider to the target through year-3.
Full feature vector · click to expand
FeatureValueβ·xSource
Comp vs FMV gap0.053+0.09FMV benchmark ANESTHESIOLOGY p50 $475,000
Short tenure1.000+1.50caller.years_at_facility
Age peak0.640+0.77caller.age_years
Productivity decline0.533+1.17caller.yoy_collections_slope
Competitor density1.000+1.0080 competitors / 8 roster slots
Stark overlap0.000+0.00no Stark overlap
Employment status1.000+1.40provider.employment_status=LOCUM
Revenue concentration0.603+0.241,900,000 / 15,750,000 roster total
Specialty mobility0.750+0.98specialty=ANESTHESIOLOGY mobility prior
Features in [0, 1] · β·x is the feature's contribution to log-odds of flight (red raises probability, green lowers). Sum + intercept (−3.2) = log-odds; sigmoid → probability.
18-mo flight probability
92%
~$1,474,885 at risk
Log-odds contribution (top drivers · hover for detail)
Short tenure+1.50
Competitor density+1.00
Employment status+0.98
Age peak+0.96
Partner recommendation: Retention bond required pre-close. Do not close the deal without a 2-3 year retention agreement carrying a meaningful lockup (typically 25–50% of comp held escrow).
Retention bond sizing: $168,000 (3y lockup) — bonds this provider to the target through year-3.
Full feature vector · click to expand
FeatureValueβ·xSource
Comp vs FMV gap0.063+0.11FMV benchmark EMERGENCY_MEDICINE p50 $395,000
Short tenure1.000+1.50caller.years_at_facility
Age peak0.800+0.96caller.age_years
Productivity decline0.000+0.00caller.yoy_collections_slope
Competitor density1.000+1.0080 competitors / 8 roster slots
Stark overlap0.000+0.00no Stark overlap
Employment status0.700+0.98provider.employment_status=1099
Revenue concentration0.508+0.201,600,000 / 15,750,000 roster total
Specialty mobility0.700+0.91specialty=EMERGENCY_MEDICINE mobility prior
Features in [0, 1] · β·x is the feature's contribution to log-odds of flight (red raises probability, green lowers). Sum + intercept (−3.2) = log-odds; sigmoid → probability.
Full roster · sortable · filterable · CSV export
| Provider | Specialty | Employment | Flight prob | Band | Collections | $ at risk | Top driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P005 | ANESTHESIOLOGY | LOCUM | 98.1% | CRITICAL | $1,900,000 | $1,864,189 | Short tenure |
| P004 | EMERGENCY MEDICINE | 1099 | 92.2% | CRITICAL | $1,600,000 | $1,474,885 | Short tenure |
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