IC Memo — ST. LUKES HOSPITAL
Returns are outside the peer band for this healthcare — assumptions need a harder look.
Context
- EBITDA
- $0.0M
- Type
- n/a
- Payer mix
- not reported
- IRR / MOIC
- 0.0% / 0.00x
- Entry → Exit multiple
- n/a → n/a
Bull case
The underwrite triggers very few PE pattern flags.
Bear case
Below fund hurdle for this regime. Not fundable as modeled. Identify the structural driver before underwriting recovery. We don't underwrite benchmarks. Tell the seller we need the payer mix detail, the denial ledger, and two years of AR aging before we can name a number.
Reasonableness
| Metric | Observed | Verdict | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
irr | 0.0% | OUT | 0.0% IRR falls below the 15.0% floor for small / balanced payer mix — most LPs pass at this level. |
ebitda_margin | 0.0% | OUT | 0.0% margin is below the 4.0% peer floor for acute-care hospital. |
exit_multiple | n/a | ? | Exit multiple not modeled. |
Pattern flags
- [HIGH] Data coverage is too low for a reliable underwrite
We don't underwrite benchmarks. Tell the seller we need the payer mix detail, the denial ledger, and two years of AR aging before we can name a number.
Remediation: Escalate data request; do not pencil a bid against imputed metrics. - [MEDIUM] Case Mix Index is missing on an acute-care underwrite
How do you benchmark reimbursement without CMI? Get it from HCRIS Worksheet S-3 before you finish the model.
Remediation: Pull CMI from HCRIS or seller data room before running the bridge.
Key questions
- What is the single operating advantage that produces the modeled IRR, and has it been validated by a comparable deal?
- Is the below-peer margin temporary (integration, one-time) or structural?
- Which specific data artifacts can the seller provide to raise coverage above 70%?
This is a small-cap healthcare with a unspecified payer mix. Returns are outside the peer band for this healthcare — assumptions need a harder look. Bull case: The underwrite triggers very few PE pattern flags. Bear case: Below fund hurdle for this regime. Not fundable as modeled. Identify the structural driver before underwriting recovery. We don't underwrite benchmarks. Tell the seller we need the payer mix detail, the denial ledger, and two years of AR aging before we can name a number. My read: proceed with caveats — Multiple high-severity items or band breaches — proceed only after specific remediations.