ML Analysis — NORTH CENTRAL HEALTH CARE FACILITIES
CCN 524017 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
54
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -47.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-43.5%, 13.1%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 5497616.750 | -0.4731 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3730144.750 | +0.3002 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2768866.009 | +0.0629 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.509 | -0.0508 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 26%Low turnaround probability (26%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
53.4%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-39.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P79. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.509 | +0.419 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.742 | -0.202 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3730144.750 | -0.127 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.635 | +0.118 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.173 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -47.4%
Projected margin: -39.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 69
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.318 | 0.615 | 29.7% | $4.5M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |