ML Analysis — GRANT REGIONAL HEALTH CENTER INC.
CCN 521322 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 0.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-31.8%, 24.8%]. P53 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1754574.680 | +0.0245 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.555 | +0.0209 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
55.7%
Distress Risk
$4.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
10.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P19. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.300 | +0.209 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.555 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.048 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.518 | +0.033 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1754574.680 | -0.010 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.3M
Current margin: 0.4%
Projected margin: 10.3%
Grade: C
Comps: 87
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.434 | 0.636 | 20.2% | $3.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.300 | 0.499 | 20.0% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P50 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |