ML Analysis — MARSHFIELD MEDICAL CENTER-EAU CLAIRE
CCN 520210 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
65
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility12/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -21.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.1%, 28.5%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 4668739.232 | -0.3710 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 3831786.643 | +0.3144 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2701559.555 | +0.0607 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0371 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Bed Count | 56.000 | +0.0145 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 50%Turnaround possible (50%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
40.3%
Distress Risk
$2.1M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-20.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P84. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
WI distress rate: 34.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.705 | -0.167 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 3831786.643 | -0.133 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.039 | -0.049 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 56.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.351 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.350 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.1M
Current margin: -21.8%
Projected margin: -20.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 45
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.610 | 0.693 | 8.3% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.351 | 0.384 | 3.3% | $818K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P41 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |