ML Analysis — COLUMBIA BASIN HOSPITAL
CCN 501317 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
45
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -15.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.5%, 15.1%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 809987.440 | -0.1074 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 938871.360 | +0.0885 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.751 | +0.0428 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.103 | -0.0426 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
59.7%
Distress Risk
$5.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
10.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P43. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
WA distress rate: 67.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.297 | +0.208 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.751 | +0.170 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 809987.440 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.400 | +0.013 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.526 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.3M
Current margin: -15.9%
Projected margin: 10.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.303 | 0.629 | 32.6% | $4.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.526 | 0.582 | 5.6% | $368K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P49 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |