ML Analysis — LAKE TAYLOR TRANSITIONAL CARE HOSPIT
CCN 492001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health16/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-2.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 14.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-30.5%, 26.1%]. P56 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 422577.683 | +0.1521 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 494612.654 | -0.1514 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.855 | -0.0926 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.746 | +0.0423 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
70.9%
Distress Risk
$10.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
34.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P98. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.855 | +0.765 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.746 | +0.168 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 494612.654 | +0.064 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.018 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.546 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 104.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.3M
Current margin: 14.6%
Projected margin: 34.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 53
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.127 | 0.712 | 58.5% | $8.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.546 | 0.783 | 23.7% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P33 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |