ML Analysis — CENTRA HEALTH
CCN 490021 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility15/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-25.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-53.4%, 3.2%]. P16 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 0.000 | -0.2205 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.044 | +0.0666 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.000 | +0.0580 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 452.000 | -0.0473 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.000 | -0.0413 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
nan%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
VA distress rate: 29.6%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.760 | -0.218 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.047 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 452.000 | +0.041 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.353 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.8M
Current margin: nan%
Projected margin: nan%
Grade: D
Comps: 21
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.600 | 0.696 | 9.6% | $1.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.760 | 0.820 | 6.0% | $396K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |