ML Analysis — MOAB REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 461302 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position17/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
3.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -3.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-24.8%, 31.8%]. P71 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2598572.882 | +0.1423 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2685894.412 | -0.1267 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.080 | +0.0933 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.833 | -0.0358 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.578 | +0.0234 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 56%Turnaround possible (56%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.4%
Distress Risk
$6.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
11.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P44. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
UT distress rate: 25.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.318 | +0.192 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.577 | +0.093 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2598572.882 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.572 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.124 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 17.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.5M
Current margin: -3.4%
Projected margin: 11.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 19
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.304 | 0.667 | 36.4% | $5.5M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.577 | 0.699 | 12.1% | $626K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.318 | 0.376 | 5.8% | $385K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |