ML Analysis — AVERA GREGORY HOSPITAL
CCN 431338 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -23.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.8%, 18.8%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.565 | -0.0420 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1343898.539 | -0.0329 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.090 | +0.0319 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 13.000 | +0.0212 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Commercial % | 0.181 | -0.0164 | Lower Commercial % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.4%
Distress Risk
$2.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-7.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P42. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
SD distress rate: 44.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.319 | +0.191 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.768 | +0.076 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.500 | +0.058 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.052 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 13.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1343898.538 | +0.014 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.9M
Current margin: -23.5%
Projected margin: -7.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 37
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.181 | 0.325 | 14.4% | $2.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.319 | 0.376 | 5.7% | $379K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.500 | 0.671 | 17.1% | $350K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 35.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P79 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |