ML Analysis — SILVERTON HOSPITAL
CCN 380029 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
58
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health8/25
RCM Upside21/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency10/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.3%, 21.3%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 4738698.379 | -0.3796 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 4081308.517 | +0.3493 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2966226.398 | +0.0694 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.081 | -0.0264 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.300 | -0.0256 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 38%Turnaround possible (38%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
45.7%
Distress Risk
$2.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-14.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P55. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OR distress rate: 65.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.300 | +0.211 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.727 | -0.187 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4081308.517 | -0.148 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.098 | -0.039 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.446 | +0.035 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 29.000 | -0.016 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.2M
Current margin: -16.1%
Projected margin: -14.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 33
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.446 | 0.601 | 15.4% | $2.1M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.602 | 0.607 | 0.5% | $74K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |