ML Analysis — NORTHWEST CTR FOR BEHAVIORAL HEALTH
CCN 374001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-25.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-54.2%, 2.4%]. P15 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 148846.958 | -0.1997 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 720465.500 | +0.1154 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.575 | -0.0588 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.061 | +0.0403 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 14%Low turnaround probability (14%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
56.4%
Distress Risk
$1.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-11.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P81. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.575 | +0.485 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.683 | -0.146 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 148846.958 | +0.084 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.181 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.087 | -0.041 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 24.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.4M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -11.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 81
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.338 | 0.420 | 8.2% | $1.2M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.181 | 0.519 | 33.7% | $141K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 41.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 96.8% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 97.1% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |