ML Analysis — ST ANTHONY SHAWNEE HOSPITAL
CCN 370149 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.8%, 23.8%]. P51 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2967668.175 | +0.1938 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 3149956.105 | -0.1839 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 2015104.461 | +0.0379 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.132 | +0.0200 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 42%Turnaround possible (42%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
46.2%
Distress Risk
$1.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-5.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P50. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.248 | +0.159 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.679 | -0.143 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2967668.175 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.283 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 57.000 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.286 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.5M
Current margin: -6.1%
Projected margin: -5.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 61
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.283 | 0.353 | 7.0% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.466 | 0.472 | 0.6% | $86K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P45 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |