ML Analysis — COMANCHE COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 370056 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
56
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility14/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.9%, 18.7%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.090 | +0.0321 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.284 | -0.0236 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.303 | +0.0216 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.241 | -0.0143 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Reimbursement Quality.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
50.7%
Distress Risk
$2.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-6.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P32. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.284 | +0.195 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.627 | -0.095 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.241 | -0.057 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 201.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1513279.368 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.343 | +0.003 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.8M
Current margin: -7.8%
Projected margin: -6.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 17
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.241 | 0.283 | 4.2% | $1.5M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.373 | 0.439 | 6.6% | $996K | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.627 | 0.676 | 4.9% | $321K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P33 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |