ML Analysis — GREAT PLAINS REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 370019 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -20.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.9%, 11.7%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1172422.691 | -0.0568 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.051 | +0.0434 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1415064.048 | +0.0298 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.288 | -0.0241 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Reimbursement Quality.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
59.9%
Distress Risk
$6.7M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-7.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P94. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.277 | +0.230 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.288 | +0.199 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.267 | -0.045 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.523 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1172422.690 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.7M
Current margin: -20.7%
Projected margin: -7.0%
Grade: B
Comps: 92
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.189 | 0.448 | 25.9% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.277 | 0.539 | 26.2% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.267 | 0.464 | 19.7% | $1.1M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P7 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |