ML Analysis — HILLCREST HOSPITAL PRYOR
CCN 370015 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health1/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -7.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-47.2%, 9.4%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.047 | +0.0443 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.422 | -0.0403 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.088 | -0.0313 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.186 | -0.0205 | Lower Net-to-Gross decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 21%Low turnaround probability (21%). Structural disadvantages in Reimbursement Quality and Medicaid %.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
62.5%
Distress Risk
$5.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
10.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P49. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
OK distress rate: 58.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.422 | +0.333 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.205 | +0.297 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.186 | -0.081 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1457550.095 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.323 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.5M
Current margin: -7.2%
Projected margin: 10.7%
Grade: A
Comps: 73
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.254 | 0.411 | 15.6% | $2.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.205 | 0.496 | 29.1% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.186 | 0.525 | 33.9% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 36.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P80 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.8% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P3 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |