ML Analysis — ST. JOSEPH HOSPITAL
CCN 330332 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility13/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-17.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-45.7%, 10.9%]. P24 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 754330.360 | -0.1152 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 820573.576 | +0.1031 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.104 | +0.0279 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.313 | +0.0218 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 23%Low turnaround probability (23%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
50.6%
Distress Risk
$10.3M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-2.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P67. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.412 | +0.105 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.207 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.025 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 754330.360 | +0.049 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.471 | +0.025 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 203.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.3M
Current margin: -8.8%
Projected margin: -2.1%
Grade: C
Comps: 96
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.207 | 0.423 | 21.6% | $3.9M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.504 | 0.750 | 24.6% | $3.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.412 | 0.829 | 41.7% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P40 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |