ML Analysis — AURELIA OSBORN FOX MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 330085 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health2/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-18.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-46.9%, 9.8%]. P22 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.175 | -0.0960 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 387656.607 | -0.0161 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.261 | -0.0150 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 53.000 | +0.0149 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1486759.924 | -0.0129 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 21%Low turnaround probability (21%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Bed Utilization Value.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.1%
Distress Risk
$7.0M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
-1.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P7. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NY distress rate: 84.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.261 | +0.245 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.015 | -0.074 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.524 | +0.034 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 53.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.350 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1486759.925 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.0M
Current margin: -9.8%
Projected margin: -1.0%
Grade: C
Comps: 33
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.461 | 0.724 | 26.3% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.261 | 0.649 | 38.9% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.350 | 0.398 | 4.8% | $442K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P64 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |