ML Analysis — GROVER C DILS MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 291312 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -27.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.8%, 22.8%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 1.386 | -0.0694 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2212455.500 | -0.0684 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.085 | +0.0336 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.656 | +0.0322 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
53.9%
Distress Risk
$5.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
52.5%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P81. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.656 | +0.128 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.805 | +0.082 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.499 | +0.025 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.066 | -0.023 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 4.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1731835.250 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.6M
Current margin: -27.8%
Projected margin: 52.5%
Grade: A
Comps: 0
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.129 | 0.420 | 29.1% | $4.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.499 | 0.680 | 18.1% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 37.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P81 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.4% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P1 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |