ML Analysis — MESA VIEW REGIONAL HOSPITAL
CCN 291307 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -4.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.0%, 22.6%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | 0.004 | +0.0369 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1396175.200 | -0.0256 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1454983.920 | +0.0249 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.116 | +0.0247 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 40%Turnaround possible (40%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.0%
Distress Risk
$5.0M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
10.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P37. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.323 | +0.188 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.228 | -0.063 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.056 | -0.033 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.438 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1396175.200 | +0.011 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.0M
Current margin: -4.2%
Projected margin: 10.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 16
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.323 | 0.612 | 28.8% | $1.9M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.506 | 0.623 | 11.7% | $1.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.228 | 0.562 | 33.3% | $1.4M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |