ML Analysis — SUNRISE HOSPITAL AND MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 290003 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
53
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health17/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility11/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-3.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 6.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.2%, 24.4%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bed Count | 748.000 | -0.0935 | Higher Bed Count decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1052698.627 | +0.0745 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1122039.628 | -0.0638 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 6.617 | +0.0521 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.051 | +0.0433 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Large Academic Medical Ce
Archetype
42.0%
Distress Risk
$25.2M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
9.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Large Academic Medical Center
Percentile within cluster: P74. Large medical centers trade at premium multiples (12-14x). Limited PE value creation but strong cash flow.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| NORTH CAROLINA BAPTIST HOSPITAL | NC | 800 |
| HACKENSACK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER | NJ | 779 |
| TEMPLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL | PA | 761 |
| VCU HEALTH SYSTEM MCV HOSPITAL | VA | 842 |
| UH CLEVELAND MEDICAL CENTER | OH | 660 |
| FROEDTERT MEM. LUTHERAN HOSPT. | WI | 731 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
NV distress rate: 37.5%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.897 | -0.345 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.078 | -0.130 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.189 | +0.100 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 748.000 | +0.080 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.155 | -0.030 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1122039.628 | +0.027 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $25.2M
Current margin: 6.2%
Projected margin: 9.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 475
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.078 | 0.319 | 24.1% | $23.7M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.656 | 0.757 | 10.1% | $1.5M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |