ML Analysis — PENDER COMMUNITY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
CCN 281349 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.5%, 15.1%]. P30 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.643 | +0.0307 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 257797.368 | -0.0204 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Bed Count | 21.000 | +0.0199 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.177 | -0.0198 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Log(Beds) and Net-to-Gross.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
62.3%
Distress Risk
$1.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-3.7%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P60. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.177 | +0.323 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.643 | +0.122 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.154 | +0.065 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.492 | +0.028 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1458315.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.4M
Current margin: -8.3%
Projected margin: -3.7%
Grade: D
Comps: 65
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.643 | 0.792 | 14.9% | $533K | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.177 | 0.249 | 7.2% | $476K | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.354 | 0.381 | 2.7% | $404K | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P61 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |