ML Analysis — REGIONAL WEST GARDEN COUNTY HOSPITAL
CCN 281310 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position10/20
Demand Defensibility2/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.7%, 18.9%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 966534.400 | -0.0855 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1057371.300 | +0.0739 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.303 | -0.0481 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.718 | +0.0392 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.075 | +0.0365 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 34%Turnaround possible (34%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
62.8%
Distress Risk
$4.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
37.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P76. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.142 | +0.355 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.718 | +0.156 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.879 | +0.095 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.017 | -0.072 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 966534.400 | +0.036 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 10.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.5M
Current margin: -9.4%
Projected margin: 37.6%
Grade: A
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.104 | 0.371 | 26.8% | $4.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.142 | 0.207 | 6.5% | $426K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.718 | 0.808 | 9.0% | $102K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |