ML Analysis — CHI HEALTH NEBRASKA HEART
CCN 280128 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
50
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.6%, 20.0%]. P41 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1095113.968 | +0.0692 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1180790.937 | -0.0556 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 272565.266 | -0.0199 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.231 | -0.0167 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 63.000 | +0.0134 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.5%
Distress Risk
$4.4M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
13.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P53. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
NE distress rate: 53.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.231 | +0.273 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.000 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.499 | +0.030 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1180790.937 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.328 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 63.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $4.4M
Current margin: 7.3%
Projected margin: 13.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 18
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.231 | 0.594 | 36.3% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.500 | 0.574 | 7.4% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.328 | 0.425 | 9.7% | $846K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P43 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |