ML Analysis — ADVANCED CARE HOSPITAL OF MONTANA
CCN 272001 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside7/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 14.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.5%, 21.1%]. P44 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 544565.225 | +0.1371 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 637616.175 | -0.1314 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.096 | -0.0373 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.642 | +0.0307 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.537 | +0.0261 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
51.4%
Distress Risk
$2.4M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
24.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P70. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.836 | -0.288 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.293 | +0.204 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.642 | +0.122 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 637616.175 | +0.056 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 40.000 | -0.015 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.354 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $2.4M
Current margin: 14.6%
Projected margin: 24.2%
Grade: C
Comps: 42
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.353 | 0.469 | 11.6% | $1.7M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.642 | 0.883 | 24.0% | $717K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |