ML Analysis — BARRETT HOSPITAL AND HEALTHCARE
CCN 271318 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-8.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-36.5%, 20.1%]. P42 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2214433.500 | +0.0887 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2248117.833 | -0.0728 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.096 | -0.0373 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.683 | +0.0353 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.890 | -0.0345 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 36%Turnaround possible (36%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.2%
Distress Risk
$5.2M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
11.6%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P19. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.362 | +0.151 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.684 | +0.140 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.598 | +0.046 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2214433.500 | -0.037 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 18.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.081 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.2M
Current margin: -1.5%
Projected margin: 11.6%
Grade: B
Comps: 48
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.362 | 0.717 | 35.4% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.322 | 0.451 | 13.0% | $1.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.684 | 0.885 | 20.2% | $940K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.3 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |