ML Analysis — COMMUNITY MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 270023 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
57
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health15/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.8%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.3%, 19.3%]. P39 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.096 | -0.0373 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.319 | -0.0278 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1689711.667 | +0.0154 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 4.949 | +0.0133 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1558641.660 | +0.0121 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
55.8%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
10.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P19. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MT distress rate: 69.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.318 | +0.229 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.477 | +0.045 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.188 | -0.024 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.404 | +0.016 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1689711.667 | -0.007 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 141.000 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: 7.8%
Projected margin: 10.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 2062
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.494 | 0.756 | 26.3% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.477 | 0.748 | 27.2% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |