ML Analysis — SANFORD HOSPITAL LUVERNE
CCN 241371 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health12/25
RCM Upside10/25
Market Position12/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.4%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 7.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-33.7%, 22.9%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1163605.280 | +0.0608 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1259004.280 | -0.0447 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.544 | +0.0197 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
57.8%
Distress Risk
$6.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
27.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P27. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MN distress rate: 45.4%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.276 | +0.231 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.544 | +0.078 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.644 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.062 | -0.026 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1259004.280 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.2M
Current margin: 7.6%
Projected margin: 27.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 92
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.294 | 0.611 | 31.7% | $4.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.276 | 0.451 | 17.5% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.544 | 0.624 | 8.0% | $293K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P53 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |