ML Analysis — TRINITY HEALTH LIVINGSTON
CCN 230069 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Buy — solid fundamentals with identifiable value creation levers. Proceed to detailed diligence.
66
/ 100 (B)
Financial Health23/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency13/15
Entry Multiple: 9.5x – 11.5x
Est. MOIC: 2.3x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
20.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 15.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-8.2%, 48.4%]. P93 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 4772185.619 | +0.4457 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 4044568.071 | -0.2941 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 3626300.736 | +0.0913 | Higher Bed Utilization Value increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 42.000 | +0.0167 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.738 | -0.0148 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
36.6%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
18.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P83. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MI distress rate: 50.9%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.760 | -0.218 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 4772185.619 | -0.188 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.025 | -0.064 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.272 | -0.043 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 42.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.357 | +0.005 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: 15.2%
Projected margin: 18.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 74
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.272 | 0.466 | 19.4% | $4.6M | 65% | 18mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.618 | 0.692 | 7.4% | $1.1M | 50% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 26.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P36 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |