ML Analysis — BOURNEWOOD HOSPITAL
CCN 224022 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside14/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency5/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-14.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 3.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-42.4%, 14.1%]. P29 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 362783.314 | -0.1698 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 351169.578 | +0.1609 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.406 | -0.0589 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.598 | +0.0257 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
49.1%
Distress Risk
$0
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
3.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P58. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.832 | -0.285 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.238 | +0.149 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.598 | +0.102 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 362783.314 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.082 | -0.042 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 102.000 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $0
Current margin: 3.2%
Projected margin: 3.2%
Grade: D
Comps: 56
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |