ML Analysis — WHITTIER HOSPITAL-WESTBOROUGH
CCN 222048 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position5/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -0.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.8%, 20.8%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 405519.921 | -0.1638 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 405726.365 | +0.1542 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.053 | +0.0427 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.632 | +0.0296 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
56.7%
Distress Risk
$12.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
49.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P87. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.632 | +0.118 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.408 | +0.108 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.915 | +0.101 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.001 | -0.088 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 405519.921 | +0.069 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 63.000 | -0.011 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $12.5M
Current margin: -0.1%
Projected margin: 49.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 40
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.084 | 0.735 | 65.1% | $9.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.408 | 0.829 | 42.0% | $2.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.1 | [25.0, 75.0] | P51 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |