ML Analysis — ATHOL MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
CCN 221303 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
41
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside20/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-15.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -26.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.0%, 12.6%]. P27 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.122 | -0.0566 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.112 | +0.0258 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 21.000 | +0.0199 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1818547.905 | -0.0199 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 25%Low turnaround probability (25%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
50.0%
Distress Risk
$7.5M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-1.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P51. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
MA distress rate: 61.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.642 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.036 | -0.053 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.480 | +0.042 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.348 | -0.009 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1441959.095 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.5M
Current margin: -26.1%
Projected margin: -1.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 10
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.322 | 0.607 | 28.5% | $4.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.480 | 0.831 | 35.2% | $2.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.348 | 0.601 | 25.3% | $897K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.6 | [25.0, 75.0] | P78 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.2% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |