ML Analysis — LEVINDAL HEBREW GER. CTR. & HOSPT.
CCN 210064 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health13/25
RCM Upside11/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility9/15
Operational Efficiency7/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 5.9%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.1%, 28.5%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 693211.358 | +0.1188 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 736449.617 | -0.1177 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.863 | +0.0555 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy × Net-to-Gross | 0.598 | +0.0307 | Higher Occupancy × Net-to-Gross increases predicte | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.084 | -0.0281 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
52.3%
Distress Risk
$5.7M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
12.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P90. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.863 | +0.220 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.693 | -0.155 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.720 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.030 | -0.059 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 736449.617 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 120.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.7M
Current margin: 5.9%
Projected margin: 12.4%
Grade: C
Comps: 36
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.250 | 0.581 | 33.1% | $5.0M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.693 | 0.809 | 11.7% | $770K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |