ML Analysis — GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
CCN 210056 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
52
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health9/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-4.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -9.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-32.3%, 24.3%]. P52 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross | 0.819 | +0.0505 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1295741.277 | -0.0396 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1419245.787 | +0.0293 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.084 | -0.0281 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.308 | +0.0217 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 43%Turnaround possible (43%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Net-to-Gross.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
55.4%
Distress Risk
$6.6M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-7.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P71. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
MD distress rate: 60.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.819 | +0.200 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.644 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.064 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1295741.277 | +0.017 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.534 | -0.008 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 202.000 | +0.007 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $6.6M
Current margin: -9.5%
Projected margin: -7.0%
Grade: D
Comps: 32
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.292 | 0.551 | 25.8% | $3.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.534 | 0.786 | 25.2% | $1.7M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.819 | 0.852 | 3.4% | $1.0M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |