ML Analysis — ACADIA-ST. LANDRY HOSPITAL
CCN 191319 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health7/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position11/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-0.6%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.3%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.9%, 27.7%]. P61 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 1036466.067 | -0.0758 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Net-to-Gross | 1.000 | +0.0708 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 1101721.200 | +0.0684 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.708 | -0.0387 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 15.000 | +0.0209 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 49%Turnaround possible (49%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
58.9%
Distress Risk
$9.8M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
57.0%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P59. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 1.000 | +0.281 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.424 | +0.094 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.814 | +0.083 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1036466.067 | +0.032 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 15.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $9.8M
Current margin: -6.3%
Projected margin: 57.0%
Grade: A
Comps: 88
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.183 | 0.733 | 55.0% | $8.3M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.424 | 0.665 | 24.0% | $1.6M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 27.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P42 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |