ML Analysis — SPRINGHILL MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 190088 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
46
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility6/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-11.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -11.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.0%, 16.6%]. P34 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 469664.913 | -0.1549 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 521808.783 | +0.1399 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 67834.271 | -0.0267 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.144 | -0.0216 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.274 | -0.0208 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m |
Turnaround: 30%Turnaround possible (30%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
59.6%
Distress Risk
$7.2M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
22.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P46. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.144 | +0.353 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.007 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.520 | +0.067 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 469664.913 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.466 | +0.024 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 46.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $7.2M
Current margin: -11.1%
Projected margin: 22.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 116
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.527 | 0.781 | 25.4% | $3.8M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.144 | 0.664 | 51.9% | $3.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.520 | 0.520 | 0.1% | $1K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P55 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |