ML Analysis — NORTH LOUISIANA MEDICAL CENTER
CCN 190086 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
48
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility10/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- RCM optimization could add 3-5pp margin
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
- Volume growth opportunity from low occupancy
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-12.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.1%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-40.8%, 15.8%]. P32 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 460056.148 | -0.1562 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 548049.730 | +0.1366 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.067 | +0.0386 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Medicaid % | 0.295 | -0.0249 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 131787.025 | -0.0246 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 29%Low turnaround probability (29%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
59.3%
Distress Risk
$10.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
0.3%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P52. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
LA distress rate: 46.3%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.286 | +0.222 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.295 | +0.206 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.175 | -0.086 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 460056.148 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 122.000 | -0.004 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.321 | -0.001 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $10.9M
Current margin: -19.1%
Projected margin: 0.3%
Grade: A
Comps: 37
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.384 | 0.856 | 47.2% | $7.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.286 | 0.685 | 39.8% | $2.6M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.175 | 0.356 | 18.1% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 30.8 | [25.0, 75.0] | P63 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |