ML Analysis — DOCTORS HOSPITAL
CCN 170194 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
33
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health0/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position7/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-28.9%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -19.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-57.2%, -0.6%]. P13 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.197 | -0.0506 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.057 | +0.0415 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Expense/Bed | 1945055.111 | -0.0355 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Medicaid % | 0.347 | -0.0312 | Higher Medicaid % decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 12%Low turnaround probability (12%). Structural disadvantages in State Peer Margin and Log(Beds).
Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Archetype
60.2%
Distress Risk
$1.9M
RCM Opportunity
B
Opportunity Grade
-6.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Safety-Net/Medicaid Heavy
Percentile within cluster: P60. High Medicaid dependence creates reimbursement risk. Assess DSH payments and state expansion status.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| WESTERN PEAKS SPECIALTY HOSPITAL | UT | 59 |
| HOSPITAL MENONITA AIBONITO | PR | 129 |
| TOPPENISH COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WA | 47 |
| MINERAL COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | MT | 25 |
| BANNER UNIVERSITY MED CENTER SOUTH | AZ | 132 |
| NORTH COLORADO MEDICAL CENTER | CO | 202 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.196 | +0.306 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.347 | +0.258 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.158 | -0.094 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 9.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.291 | -0.006 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1632290.889 | -0.003 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.9M
Current margin: -19.2%
Projected margin: -6.4%
Grade: B
Comps: 35
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.158 | 0.835 | 67.7% | $1.2M | 65% | 18mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.196 | 0.304 | 10.8% | $713K | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 39.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P82 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 98.0% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P1 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |