ML Analysis — ASCENSION ST. VINCENT WILLIAMSPORT
CCN 151307 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
44
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility5/15
Operational Efficiency2/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-7.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -6.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-35.6%, 21.0%]. P43 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 2.773 | -0.0372 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.107 | +0.0271 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.011 | +0.0255 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1427423.125 | -0.0212 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 16.000 | +0.0207 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 37%Turnaround possible (37%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
51.5%
Distress Risk
$5.9M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
19.2%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P4. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IN distress rate: 42.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.316 | +0.194 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.010 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.240 | -0.058 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.542 | +0.037 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 16.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1427423.125 | +0.009 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $5.9M
Current margin: -6.5%
Projected margin: 19.2%
Grade: A
Comps: 57
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.448 | 0.742 | 29.4% | $4.4M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.316 | 0.446 | 13.0% | $856K | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.240 | 0.462 | 22.2% | $594K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 34.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P77 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.3% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P5 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |