ML Analysis — FAYETTE COUNTY HOSPITAL
CCN 141346 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health4/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position13/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -5.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-37.3%, 19.3%]. P40 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log(Beds) | 3.219 | -0.0268 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.124 | +0.0223 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 25.000 | +0.0193 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 398471.660 | -0.0157 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Occupancy | 0.262 | -0.0149 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 35%Turnaround possible (35%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Log(Beds).
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.0%
Distress Risk
$3.8M
RCM Opportunity
C
Opportunity Grade
4.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P1. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.262 | +0.244 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.004 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.634 | +0.053 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 25.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.342 | -0.012 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1519454.200 | +0.004 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.8M
Current margin: -5.0%
Projected margin: 4.9%
Grade: C
Comps: 74
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.363 | 0.504 | 14.1% | $2.1M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.262 | 0.415 | 15.3% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.342 | 0.488 | 14.6% | $648K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 32.9 | [25.0, 75.0] | P73 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |