ML Analysis — ROCHELLE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
CCN 141312 | Clustering + Distress + RCM Opportunity
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
51
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health10/25
RCM Upside13/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-5.7%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 4.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.0%, 22.6%]. P48 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 2964467.235 | +0.1934 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 2840401.823 | -0.1458 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.833 | -0.0358 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 17.000 | +0.0206 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Occupancy | 0.189 | -0.0191 | Lower Occupancy decreases predicted margin |
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.8%
Distress Risk
$1.9M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
7.9%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P66. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
IL distress rate: 51.0%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.189 | +0.312 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.005 | -0.084 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2964467.235 | -0.082 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.489 | +0.054 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.545 | +0.037 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 17.000 | -0.018 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.9M
Current margin: 4.2%
Projected margin: 7.9%
Grade: D
Comps: 59
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.189 | 0.374 | 18.5% | $1.2M | 55% | 24mo |
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.450 | 0.492 | 4.2% | $634K | 50% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.489 | 0.493 | 0.4% | $23K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 31.7 | [25.0, 75.0] | P68 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |